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Public survey indicates stability after the election

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A recent public opinion survey about the upcoming general election shows Turkey would get another single-party government and the stability would continue after the election.

A public opinion poll conducted weeks ago on the Turkish parliamentary election, to be held on June 7, indicated that Turkish voters would support political stability as the ruling Justice and Development Party or, AK Party, would get more than 45 percent of votes that would give the party enough majority to a one-party government.

While the political parties conducting an intense election campaign, the public opinions are going to show a clear image of election results.

According to the public survey results conducted by a Turkish pollster, the Denge Araştırma, between May 3 and 7 in 25 provinces, three-fourths of the citizens are willing to see a single party government.

While answering a question about which party would they vote for in next month’s general elections, 45.6 percent said the AK Party, while 25.5 percent answered that they would cast their votes in favor of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP. 15.1 percent of participants said they would vote to the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, while the vote bank of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Peoples’ Party, or HDP, would remain under the election threshold with 9.5 percent.

The pro-Kurdish HDP, that declared to run for the parliament under a party banner as first time in the Kurdish political history, is expected to be one of the main focus points of the upcoming election. If the HDP can overcome the election threshold of 10 percent of all counted votes, the seat distribution will see a major change for all parties including the ruling AK Party and the main opposition CHP.

As the pollster’s result shows that HDP remains outside of the parliament, the numbers of the deputies of the three other parties – the AK Party, CHP and MHP – will be increased in this year’s election.

According to the survey results, the vote for the AK Party and the CHP is increasing with their strong election campaign and election manifestos. An earlier survey conducted on April 15 unveiled that AK Party would get 45.1 percent and 24.3 would go to the CHP. But the figure of the vote bank of MHP represents a decrease from the previous public opinion poll with 0.9 percent and HDP remains under the threshold line.

The latest survey was conducted in a face-to-face question method with 5073 people from almost all big cities.

The ruling party would become the first party in three out of seven geographic regions of Turkey: 52.6 percent in the Black Sea area, 51.3 percent in the Central Anatolian region and 49.5 percent in the Eastern Anatolian region. The CHP would become the strongest party in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Aegean regions while the pro-Kurdish party would become the biggest party in the southeastern region of Turkey with 44 percent votes.

Nearly 68.3 percent of the participants said that they want to see a single-party government after the election for the stability of Turkish politics and economy, while 25.7 percent said, “It can be a coalition, too.”

The survey also unveiled that most of the people who said they would vote to the CHP, MHP or HDP did not trust that their party could form a government without any coalition. About half of the participants believe that the ruling party will gain enough of a majority to form a single-party government. On the other hand 14.9 percent believed that the CHP could form a government, while 4.9 percent said MHP and 2.1 percent said the HDP would be able to form the government without making a coalition with other parties.

According to a demographic analysis of the survey result, 53.2 percent of Kurdish citizens of Turkey would vote for the pro-Kurdish HDP, while 40.1 percent of them said they would cast their vote in favor of the ruling party.

Resource: Yenişafak English, May 11, 2015

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