The new Idlib deal allows for Turkey to maintain its position in the Syrian crisis and to lead negotiations on an international level.
“It may be misleading to state that the wave of regional transformation, which began in 2010, has come to an end despite the downward course of events in recent years. Many factors, both regional and international, have the potential to reactivate the wave of transformation in the Middle East.”
The U.S. decision to abandon Syrian rebels in the southern region has led to a trust issue between the YPG-dominated SDF and the U.S. administration.
The fact that Turkey forced the PKK out of Manbij in cooperation with the U.S. and without having to conduct a military operation there can be counted as success.
In order for Turkey and the U.S. to improve their strategic partnership, cooperation on the Manbij issue needs to be spread to other issues in Syria.
This is the first comprehensive counter-terror operation against the PKK. This time, the military strategy is not only targeting to eliminate PKK terrorists but also aiming to clean and hold the territory where the PKK has any presence.
“Losing Turkey by keeping it out of the JSF also means that the U.S. would weaken its own strategic objectives in the Middle East.”
Does the Manbij deal have the ability to reform bilateral relations between Turkey and the U.S.?
“Only after such a tri-partite cooperation of Turkey, Iran, and Iraq, can the PKK finally be cleaned off from Qandil.”
The recent agreement over Manbij between Turkey and the U.S. is a hopeful development; yet other important issues regarding Ankara’s security concerns and peace in Syria still remain.