“The possibility that Tehran might give up hope of a political resolution due to reasons such as the crippling economy due to sanctions, increasing pressure from regional rivals and internal opposition provoking street protests, may cause U.S.-Iran tensions to rise to their highest level of the last 40 years, and this situation would have severe consequences for the entire region, including Turkey.”
As Turkey responds to the changing dynamics on the ground, it becomes a significant player of the geopolitical game in Syria. Following a balanced foreign policy will further reinforce Turkey’s achievements.
“It’s clear that the current regime in Egypt – far from any form of democratization – dragged the country into a more totalitarian rule.”
Turkey’s policy of keeping and enlarging its military presence in Syria has two aims: Sustaining Turkey’s national security against YPG and Daesh terror and achieving democratic change in Syria.
Mohammad bin Salman’s political ambitions might lead him to future disasters like the Yemen, Hariri and Khashoggi ones. However, if regional tensions can be lowered due to a politically weakened MbS, it could count as a win for Turkey.
“One way to prevent a regime coalition offensive in Idlib would be if the U.S. stepped in. If the U.S. could come to a more balanced position between Turkey and the PKK it could allow for a so-called “NATO zone” that would put nearly half the country out of reach of the pro-Assad coalition, and place Turkey’s territorial holdings in Syria under the political protection, if not the military protection, of the United States.”
“If Trump decides to retreat MbS because of his brutality, which is unlikely to happen, it will not be a decision of American liberal principles, but a decision motivated by the increasing unpredictability of MbS’s actions in the Middle East.”
“Recent developments in Iraq illustrate that the KDP and PUK will continue to dominate Iraqi politics. You can essentially read this as the Barzani and Talebani houses continuing their reign on this shaky settlement, a settlement found based on a delicate division of power in the region.”
Will relations between Turkey and Iraq change in the post-Abadi era?
The question of how the new government in Iraq will be formed is a question of matter to Turkey as this will affect Ankara’s fight against the PKK.