What are the Regional Effects of Heavier Sanctions against Iran?

“The possibility that Tehran might give up hope of a political resolution due to reasons such as the crippling economy due to sanctions, increasing pressure from regional rivals and internal opposition provoking street protests, may cause U.S.-Iran tensions to rise to their highest level of the last 40 years, and this situation would have severe consequences for the entire region, including Turkey.”

The Dynamics Behind the Istanbul Summit

As Turkey responds to the changing dynamics on the ground, it becomes a significant player of the geopolitical game in Syria. Following a balanced foreign policy will further reinforce Turkey’s achievements.

Has Turkey’s Syria Policy Changed?

Turkey’s policy of keeping and enlarging its military presence in Syria has two aims: Sustaining Turkey’s national security against YPG and Daesh terror and achieving democratic change in Syria.

The Khashoggi Affair Ushers in a New Era in the Region

Mohammad bin Salman’s political ambitions might lead him to future disasters like the Yemen, Hariri and Khashoggi ones. However, if regional tensions can be lowered due to a politically weakened MbS, it could count as a win for Turkey.

Does Quadruple Talk in Istanbul Signal Peace for Syria?

“One way to prevent a regime coalition offensive in Idlib would be if the U.S. stepped in. If the U.S. could come to a more balanced position between Turkey and the PKK it could allow for a so-called “NATO zone” that would put nearly half the country out of reach of the pro-Assad coalition, and place Turkey’s territorial holdings in Syria under the political protection, if not the military protection, of the United States.”

Geopolitics of the Khashoggi Murder

“If Trump decides to retreat MbS because of his brutality, which is unlikely to happen, it will not be a decision of American liberal principles, but a decision motivated by the increasing unpredictability of MbS’s actions in the Middle East.”