The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its 2017 growth forecast for Turkey to over 6 percent on Tuesday.
“Economic growth is estimated to have exceeded six percent in 2017, driven by strong fiscal stimulus and an export market recovery,” the OECD said in a note of its latest outlook on Turkey.
“It is projected to edge down but to stay between 4.5 percent and five percent in 2018 and 2019,” it said. “Consumer price inflation remains far above the target and disinflation is projected to be slow.”
The increase in the OECD’s growth outlook for Turkey follows the International Monetary Fund upping Turkey’s 2017 growth forecast 2.6 percentage points on Oct. 10, the World Bank raising its forecast 0.4 percentage points on Oct. 19, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lifting it by 2.6 percentage points on Nov. 7 and the EU increasing it by 2.3 percent on Nov. 11.
“As fiscal stimulus is scheduled to be withdrawn in 2018, against the backdrop of continuing regional and domestic uncertainties, strengthening business and household sentiment will be essential for maintaining growth momentum,” the OECD said.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Turkey’s economy expanded beyond forecasts in the first quarter (5.2 percent) and second quarter (5.1 percent) of this year.
The economy’s growth has been observed as 5.2 percent in 2014, 6.1 percent in 2015 and 2.9 percent last year.
As noted in the country’s medium-term economic program announced on Sept. 27, the government is targeting a growth rate of 5.5 percent this year as well as through to 2020.
“Effective progress with the announced structural reforms, fiscal transparency and disinflation goals of the Medium-Term Economic Programme 2018-20 would bolster confidence and boost domestic and foreign private business investment,” the organization said.
On Monday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said it would not be a surprise if the Turkish economy grew by around seven percent in 2017.
*Written by Suna Nur Sarihan.